'Tis Only My Opinion!

January 2016 - Volume 36, Number 1

"Looking for New Elephants"

What is an Elephant?

An elephant is an investment which will return more than 10 times your initial investment.  Often, the biggest elephants are to be found not by scanning for stocks but by observing the world around you and seeing potential opportunities that have the ability to change the way people think, use technology or make the world a better place.

Examples of recent elephant stocks are the so-called FANG stocks: Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google. Also, the so-called NOSH stocks including: as follows: NIKE, O'Reilly, Starbucks & Home Depot.

While these eight stocks were responsible for most of the gains in the S&P 500 during 2015 and might well continue to show the way forward in 2016, their current size makes them less likely to continue to be elephant stocks in the future.

Where do we search for new elephants?

Obviously, we won't find them by traveling on a sightseeing jaunt to see elephants in Africa. In finding past elephants, it was a requirement to keep abreast of technology and what the 12-17 year-old groups were doing as they were generally the trend setters. We are looking at the following sectors which might provide stocks which meet the elephant criteria in the future.

Sectors in which future elephants might be found are: 


DNA & Bio-Tech dealing with Regenerative Tissue

Stem Cell research to add years to life

DNA and Stem Cell research to cure diseases.

EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse)

EMP Protection

Protection of all digital-stored media


Prevention of hacking and falsification of data

But remember "Privacy has been dead since 1980."'


Food factories - Lettuce, Carrots, Radishes, Potatoes, etc.

Waste Reduction & Conversion

Star-Wars Transportation

Cell separation and regeneration at a different physical location via networks either physical or using non-physical phenomena.

"Future Activity"


Activities that replace "meaningful work" for 9 billion people as automation replaces workers at all levels. This is the biggest challenge to our way of life.


Finding new elephants is hard and once they are discovered, it takes an investor who can handle the drawdowns and rebuy when necessary to ride the rollercoaster of investor ups and downs while staying committed to the long view.

But there will always be opportunities to invest successfully.  Sometimes it means staying out of the market and being in cash and/or equivalent ... and other times it means holding a view which is definitely in the minority.

The key is to understand the reality of the economy and not the "hope" presented by the government and/or the press. Successful investing is really simple. Buy stocks with increasing sales, increasing profits and positive cash flow.

But then - 'Tis Only My Opinion!

Fred Richards
January 4, 2016


Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic, the more laws.] -- Tacitus, Annals III 27

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