Current Outlook
"June 2017"
94 months and counting ...
Thanks to the Trump effect, the rally has continued for 94 months.
The question is how much longer will it last. The market continues to
set new record highs although volume is not as robust as one might like.
The divergence between the Ministry of Truth's data (known as soft
data thanks to all of the various data adjustments) and hard data continues to
grow.
Look at the ADP employment May 2017report showing 253,000 jobs added
and the MOT's May 2017 new jobs estimate of 138,000 of which the
birth/death rate adjustment, or fudge factor, added 230,000 jobs to the
MOT's figures.
Nevertheless, the market runs on expectations and not reality.
Terrorist attacks appear to be increasing in frequency in Europe and
elsewhere. When will "enough be enough" to overcome the obstructionism
of the opposition party?
President Trump continues to move forward keeping his campaign
promises as he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord
agreement.
However, the inability to repeal and replace Obamacare and to clearly
define the new tax plan continues to cause some uncertainty among
investors.
The real question is whether the Republican Congress will come
together and legislate as a controlling party or will the party
in-fighting doom the Trump agenda and his presidency?
Fred Richards
June 2, 2017
