Current Outlook
"September 2017"
97 months and counting ...
As the market closed on Thursday, it had been exactly ne year and two months since
the last follow-through event and the rally had managed to chalk up a
run of 97 months.
The DJIA appears headed
back to the 22,000 level in the
next few days although historically, September has not been a good month
for the markets.
However, the most of the gains come from the FAANGNOSH stocks which
have dominated the market for the past two years. The small-caps near
the end of August had better market action as the NASDAQ set a new
all-time record high on August 31st.
Hurricane Harvey has disrupted some of the economy and losses will
exceed $150 billion or more. Some will see that as a boost to the
economy going forward although those gains from rebuilding won't
immediately show up.
In the meantime, the losses on insurance companies even if only 1
in 6 had insurance will be enormous and could cause a few companies
severe financial stress.
While many believe ISIS is shrinking and the North Korean mess is
winding down, the chance of a black swan occurring and disrupting the
97 month rally continues to grow.
Fred Richards
August 1, 2017
